The Year of the Chalk

The days of Cinderella runs and mid-major upsets may be over. For the second year in a row we don’t have a single mid-major team in the Sweet 1, which has only happened one other year before 2025. Favorites on Friday in the Round of 64 went 16-0. How is that even possible? Betting on favorites in the 2026 edition of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament has been more profitable in terms of picking outright winners than in a typical year, largely because the tournament has been unusually chalky, with higher-seeded teams advancing at a higher rate and very few major upsets. Top seeds and power-conference teams have generally controlled games, reflecting a growing talent gap fueled by factors like the transfer portal and NIL deals, which concentrate elite players at already-strong programs. 

Which brings me to my next point. Has NIL ruined Cinderella runs and college basketball as a whole? I am split right down the middle. Teams like Kentucky spent 20 million dollars, the most out of any team in the nation, yet the best they could come up with is a 30 point blowout to Iowa State. Spending the most money does not guarantee you anything but it does make the gap between P5 teams and mid-major teams wider. The days of 16,15 and even 14 seeds winning games could be all but over. The top teams in the country are getting better and these high mid major teams are getting substantially worse. There is genuinely nothing they can do about it either, any player that averages double digits on a mid-major team is bound to get recruited to a P5 school with more money.

March Madness will never be the same and that’s okay. Anyone who says the games this weekend didn’t deliver is brain dead and should never watch ball again. We were blessed with plenty of intense games and even a couple of upsets. No matter how much NIL money there is in the world we will still have upsets like Iowa & High Point but they have to play a near perfect game and these power house teams will have to piss it down their leg. I love college basketball and think these players should be paid but this has gotten out of hand. There has to be a cap and minimum amount each school receives. We can’t have Kentucky spending 20 million while Rutgers is getting 500k. They have the right idea but the wrong blueprint, college basketball is close to being perfect but they need to make some changes to get back to the game we all know and love.