Surgical PrizePicks NBA 3-Man for Sunday Night
Rav gets in the lab and crafts a 3-man for the late NBA slate with a lot of help from props.cash
Rav
CFB + NBA
The NBA Notebook has gone through a revamp. Gone are the days where these articles have been filled with labbed matchup advantages or disadvantages for every position in every game on the slate. I came to the realization that absoltely nobody wants or cares to see that shit anymore, and what people really care about is the best, most lopsided matchup advantages for all the games combined instead.
What I still will be doing is stuffing my face into props.cash to find these advantages everyday I walk into Bookit HQ. The new computer update is absoltely beautiful and the UI now makes things incredibly easier to find the angles that I love to look for: L10 DvPs.
But with this new update, what makes it even better is the new filtering options. Now, I love looking for initial DvP matchup advantage leans that also fits how the specific player has performed when playing against these types of defenses. Below is an example of that. Tyrese Maxey was up for 8.5 3PTA in a matchup against the Miami Heat. Not only was the initial 3PTA for PG vs Miami a good angle, Maxey has absoltely thrived vs Bottom 10 defenses vs PGs in transition for 3PTA.
This is the new mecca. So from now on, for the rest of the season, the NBA Notebooks will be my favorite squares that not only fit the classic 65% or better L10 DvPs but dive deeper than that. This has to be done. I have been dishing out too much cake and have not been able to get into a good groove with NBA props like I did last season.
Today's NBA 3-Man
Now walk with me here, yes I know what you're thinking: How in the absolte fuck is he taking DeAndre Ayton to do anything. He has been by far the biggest meme of the NBA season this year these last few games. From the whole Crunk Juice report to LeBron staring his ass down from the other side of the bench, to him even saying "the Lakers are making me Clint Capela" and proceeding to drop a worse stat line in more minutes that same night compared to Capela ... it has been a really rough stretch for Ayton.
To that I ask you this: How many people around the country tonight do you think will be fading Ayton? That answer is a fuckin lot. We buy low around here fellas. And on top of buying that stock just off of narratives, he's got a great matchup today at home vs Sacremento.
Ayton has hit his PR line 82% of the time this season (9/11) when playing a bottom 10 defense overall against the position (Kings DvP vs C PR: 30th) that also ranks in the bottom 10 in points allowed on cuts (22nd). Ayton should be able to find more success down low than he's been producing recently. He hasn't had this good of a matchup since Jan 24 vs Dallas (finished with 20 PR)
Hartenstein Rebounds has hit 5/6 times this season when playing bottom 10 defenses vs centers. The Mavs rank 27th in the league in allowing center rebounding this season. With a high total of 235.5, both teams should be shooting the ball quite a lot and Hartenstein should be able to gobble up those boards.
And finally, Cade PA. Although the Magic are in the top third of most defensive categories this season, they do let combo guards produce a lot against them (they rank 28th DvP vs PG PA). In 17 games for Cade against Bottom 10 DvPs, he has hit his PA line 12 times (71%), including five of his last five games. When combining the fact that the Magic are also bottom 10 in the league defending against Pick n Roll Ball Handlers (25th), Cade has hit his PA in all four instances playing against these defenses.
f you are wondering what props I end up deciding on, I post NBA PrizePicks slips everyday on my X and the Bookit Snapchat account (link on bottom of page).
Reply or DM me on Twitter to let me know what you take (or even fade) (f u) from the Notebook today. Happy Friday and Let's Get Nice.
