Pirates vs Cardinals: The Best Bet to Make for Wednesday Night

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a live moneyline underdog at +100 against the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday night at Busch Stadium. Despite the Cardinals holding a stronger record and sitting higher in the NL Central, this matchup offers Pittsburgh a genuine shot at an upset victory behind a favorable pitching profile, offensive upside, and recent momentum.

Carmen Mlodzinski gets the ball for the Pirates. The 27-year-old right-hander sits at 3-3 with a 4.40 ERA over 45 innings in nine appearances (seven starts) this season. While the surface numbers look modest, he generates solid strikeouts (43 in 45 IP) and has shown flashes of dominance, including a career-high 10-K outing earlier in the year. Mlodzinski has transitioned more into a starter's role and induces ground balls effectively, which could neutralize Cardinals hitters prone to fly-ball tendencies in a park that plays neutral-to-suppressor for power. His recent form includes quality outings with low walk rates in spots, and against a Cardinals lineup that can chase and expand the zone, he has the repertoire to keep runs off the board for 5+ innings.

On the other side, Michael McGreevy has been excellent for St. Louis at 3-2 with a sparkling 2.10 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over 51.1 innings. The young right-hander limits hard contact and walks few, but his strikeout rate remains modest (around 6.3 K/9), and underlying metrics suggest some regression risk—particularly if the Pirates put quality at-bats together. McGreevy relies on command and inducing weak contact rather than overpowering stuff, which the Pirates' patient and athletic lineup can exploit by working counts and capitalizing on mistakes.

Pittsburgh's offense provides multiple avenues for production. Oneil Cruz anchors the middle of the order with speed, power, and impact (.264 AVG, 10 HR pace, strong RBI totals). Bryan Reynolds offers consistent contact and extra-base pop from the left side. Newer additions like Brandon Lowe (double-digit homers already) and Marcell Ozuna bring veteran thump, while rising pieces such as Nick Gonzales, Konnor Griffin, and recently called-up Jhostynxon Garcia (hot in Triple-A with power/speed) add depth and upside. This group can string together rallies against a contact-oriented starter like McGreevy. Catchers like Henry Davis provide solid framing and occasional pop behind the plate.

The Cardinals counter with threats like Jordan Walker (.299, power), Alec Burleson, JJ Wetherholt, and Nolan Gorman/Ivan Herrera, but they have shown vulnerabilities to right-handed pitching and can go through cold stretches. Busch Stadium isn't a massive bandbox, favoring a lower-scoring affair where Pittsburgh's bullpen (featuring arms like Gregory Soto and others) can hold a late lead.

At even money, the Pirates represent strong value. Mlodzinski's strikeout ability and ground-ball profile match up well against a streaky Cardinals attack, while Pittsburgh's lineup has enough dynamic bats (Cruz, Lowe, Reynolds, Garcia) to scratch across runs. Recent form (despite a short losing streak entering the series) shows resilience, and as slight underdogs on the road, they have the ingredients for a grind-it-out win in a bullpen game after the starters exit. Expect quality innings from Mlodzinski, timely hitting from the heart of the order, and Pittsburgh to cash the +100 moneyline in a competitive NL Central battle. Lock in the Pirates on the moneyline; I’ll meet you at the cash counter when they win outright.