Mystics vs Sparks: Krabs’ Favorite Play for Friday Night

The Sparks +5.5 against the Mystics is the sharpest spread on tonight’s WNBA slate. Washington is walking into Crypto.com Arena on fumes, and Los Angeles has shown just enough fight lately to keep this one inside a possession or two. As much as I love the Mystics, 

The Mystics are playing the second half of a back-to-back after beating Phoenix 80-73 on Thursday. That game itself was the third contest in four days following a win in Portland on Sunday and another win in Phoenix on Tuesday. Three games in four nights is an unusually brutal stretch even by WNBA standards, and Washington’s only scheduled back-to-back of the entire season lands here. Legs get heavy, closeouts get late, and offensive execution dips. That is exactly the spot where a 5.5-point favorite can leak value.

Los Angeles is not a good team (13-25), but the effort has been there. On Saturday they beat Connecticut outright, 77-68. On Monday they lost to Atlanta 78-71 and still covered as a double-digit underdog. Nneka Ogwumike and Dearica Hamby continue to play with pride even as the season winds down. Home court plus a rested roster against a travel-weary opponent is enough to keep the score within the number.

Georgia Amoore, my favorite WNBA player, is coming off a career-high 25 points. She was the only reason they won last night in a crazy comeback against the Mercury. Don’t expect Georgia to save the day with another career high in back to back nights, although that would be kind of awesome.

The market has Washington as a clear better team, which they are. The Mystics are chasing a top-four seed and have won three straight on the road. But the schedule tax is real, and 5.5 points is a lot to give when one side has played three games since Sunday and the other has sat since Monday. Sparks +5.5 is the side that respects our coins on Friday night. I’ll meet you at the cash counter when the Sparks shock the world and cover against the hottest team in the WNBA.