Making A Case for Each Side & Total in the Super Bowl

The 4.5 point spread tells us this might be a close game. However, the consensus does not. 

It is objectively clear that the Seahawks are the public play. Most people are either backing the Seahawks defense or refuse to trust Drake Maye. Shockingly, the under also seems to be quite popular. You’d think the last football game of the season would attract the average Joe to put his money on points being scored. Not the case. Again, most are trusting this Hawks D and/or refusing to trust Drake Maye. 

So if you’re keeping track:

Square = Seahawks & Under

Contrarian = Patriots & Over

Let’s simplify the reasoning and provide some logic as to why each side and total is a “smart” wager in the Super Bowl.

The Seahawks defense is ranked #1 among many statistical metrics, including EPA per play. If you want to know what EPA means, you’re reading the wrong article. Seattle lost 3 games this season by a combined 9 points. This unit is now up against second year QB Drake Maye, who has not looked good in the playoffs thus far. Granted, he’s played in poor weather and against two other top defenses (Broncos & Texans) but just because it won’t be snowing in San Francisco doesn’t mean this game should be any easier for him.

Seattle's offensive isn’t necessarily loaded with weapons, but they are top heavy with JSN and Kenneth Walker. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has been in his bag in the postseason and has Sam Darnold looking poised on the big stage. The Seahawks have scored 62 points in their two playoff games.

The Patriots were trendy this offseason as a team to go over their win total. They did everything right in terms of acquiring the right players and hiring the right coach. Yet, what attracted people towards the Patriots was having the easiest schedule in the NFL. They finished the season 14-3. Each loss was only by one possession, and they were undefeated on the road. 

Drake Maye is special. It didn’t take long for New England to find their next franchise QB. He’s had some struggles in the postseason, but the team has found ways to win, leaning on their underrated defense. This unit has not received the credit they deserve. Lockdown cornerback Christian Gonzalez will be matched up with JSN, potentially removing Seattle's number one threat. Their interior D line, led by Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, is nasty. If the Seahawks have a weakness, it’s their offensive line. This is where the Patriots could muck up the game and give Seattle fits, and is also a reason why sharp bettors have been hammering the UNDER on Kenneth Walker's rushing yards. 

If you’re backing New England, you’re also selling Sam Darnold's stock at its all-time high. He has never been this big of a public darling. You’ve also got Vrabel as an underdog with the world against him, and a defense that’s disrespected. Plenty of reasons to think the Patriots can make this a competitive game.

The defenses in this game are both great, but the offenses can still find success. Klint Kubiak and Josh McDaniels are two of the better offensive coordinators in the league. If you give them two weeks to prepare, they should be able to exploit defensive weaknesses. I expect both teams to have a few trick plays up their sleeves. Also, don’t sleep on the special teams. Rashid Shaheed has already returned a kickoff for a touchdown in the playoffs, and Marcus Jones is lethal in the return game. 

If you’re betting the under, you’re not just betting on the defenses to play well. You’re also betting on these quarterbacks to show their true colors. What do I mean by that? Allow me to elaborate: 

Drake Maye is young and inexperienced. The moment has already proved to be a little too big for him, as he’s struggled in every game in the postseason, and coming off an 86 yard passing performance at Denver. 

Will the Sam Darnold we’ve all expected finally show up? He’s had his moments in big games this season where he looked like the Darnold of old. Against the Rams in their first matchup, Darnold threw four (4) interceptions. But in both playoff games, Sam has been at his best. He is coming off a season high in passing yards in the NFC Championship game. Regression is due.