Jeff Sundays MLB Best Bets - Saturday, April 4th

Yes, I faded Tim Walz and the Twins won 10-4. Yes, I bet on Kyle Bradish and he allowed 4 runs in the 2nd inning. But today is a new day. Act like you've heard of the word REDEMPTION for once in your life.

I'm locked in and ready to roll. Here are my three (3) best bets on todays MLB slate.

Milwaukee has picked up right where they left off last season with a strong 5-1 start. Although they are fortunate to have played two home series against the Rays and White Sox - two of the worst teams in baseball. Now they play their first road game which will be a doubleheader after yesterday's game got postponed. 

Luinder Avila is making his pitching debut for the Kansas City Royals. He’s a 24 year old righty who’s been grinding in the minors since 2021. KC is 3-3 and outside of one 13 run performance, the bats have been cold. The Royals have scored a combined 10 runs in their other 5 games. 

I think the bats will wake up today against Chad Patrick. Chad might be a nice guy, but you can’t trust someone with two first names, and you certainly can’t trust them to make back to back solid starts in their young pitching career.

The Bet: Royals TT O 3.5 (-130)

I’m not necessarily a Jack Flaherty guy, but I’m not not a Jack Flaherty guy.

The Tigers won their home opener yesterday and shut out St Louis. The Cardinals are off to a decent start sitting at 4-3, but I don’t think this lineup is all that good. Flaherty made his first start on the road in San Diego where he went 4.1 innings allowing 4 hits and 2 ER. His problem was he walked 4 batters.

I think Jack bounces back in the first start at home against his old team. I don’t see a line offered yet, but I want to bet over outs. If that for some reason is not available, I’ll be on under hits allowed which is currently 4.5 (-140. But we’ve got time, so I will wait for the books to get their shit together and put the OUTS prop up.

The Pirates took game one in this series and their home opener yesterday. It got sweaty after a 4-0 lead, but Pittsburgh held on to win 5-4 thanks to jumping on Kyle Bradish early.

Todays pitching matchup is a good one. Two young studs going at it. Well, at least in my eyes Shane Baz is a stud (former Rays legend) but he didn’t have the greatest start to his Orioles career. Shane allowed 7 hits and 4 ER in a no decision against Minnesota. Now he’ll make his first road start for his new team. Dare I say Shane could be a guy who thrives on the road. For whatever reason, I think this guy has some dog in him. This Pirates lineup doesn’t have a ton of familiarity with him, but it does concern me that his former teammate Brandon Lowe is in there. Especially after an off day, we could see the B Dog go yard.

Regardless, I like Baltimore in this game. I think the oddsmakers are respecting the shit out of Baltimore by making this a pick em. Pirates pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski has nasty stuff. He’s coming off an 8K showing against the Mets where he only allowed 2 runs.

So this is a bit of a line read, a bit of bias because I’m a Rays fan and I like Shane Baz, but also a bit of a baseball brain play. It pains me to admit that the Orioles have some dudes in that lineup and I think they are going to be scrappy. I liked how they showed some fight yesterday after getting down 4-0 and clawing back with 9 hits to make it a game. Today they get the W.

The Bet: Orioles -110