Jeff Sunday's MLB Best Bets - Saturday, April 11th

Miami had a rough start to their series in Detroit yesterday, losing 2-0 and only mustering up 2 hits. I think the Fish are a feisty bunch and will be a team I look to back after a poor showing. However, I don’t think I can get there with the ML, because I think the Tigers could “get right” at home. It was also quite telling that Detroit was -235 to win the series given how they’ve started the year vs how Miami started.

Casey Mize is going against Janson Junk. Two pitchers that I respect enough to not blindly fade, but I feel runs are coming today. Junk is making his first road start, so he could be shaky. I’m no weatherman but it looks like a nice day at Comerica Park. This feels like a 5-4 game.

Give me the OVER 7.5 (+100)

I might be getting duped with this one, but hear me out… 

Joe Ryan is a STUD and gets a ton of line respect. Eric Lauer is solid but nothing special. The Twins were favored on the road in KC in Ryan's last start. Now the Blue Jays are favored. I get it, Toronto is a better team than the Royals, but still stood out to me (could be way off with this one).

I was thinking about just taking Toronto on the ML here, but Lauer has a horrible history against this Twins lineup. Surprisingly these bats all have pretty good success against him, so I’m not going that route. I also thought about attacking the over but the sharps have already moved it from 7.5 to 8. So I’ve landed on fading Joe Ryan, and I’m going to do it with his outs. 

The best line I’m seeing is 17.5, but that’s also interesting because Joe Ryan hasn’t gotten more than 16 outs this season. Hmmm…I really might be getting duped, but screw it. I liked the Blue Jays bats yesterday and they scored 10 runs. I think they woke up, and Joe is coming off a game in which he threw 101 pitches.

Joe Ryan UNDER 17.5 Outs (-105) 

This is probably my squarest bet of the day, but square bets cash and I am not afraid of them.

Max Fried is a beast. After back to back shutouts to start the season, he gave up 3 runs to the Marlins. He also threw 110 pitches. That was on April 5th, so Max has gotten a full amount of recovery time. Now he faces a Rays team that just hasn’t been able to hit left handed pitchers.

The Rays have Nick Martinez making his first home start. So far, he’s looked very solid. I expect him to keep that going against a Yankees offense that has a .199 batting average thus far.

I’m not too familiar with the Yankees pen and I can’t say I really trust the Rays this early in the year, so I’m going to avoid them and attack the F5. 

Give me the F5 UNDER 3.5 (+110)