Jeff Sunday's Four (4) Favorite CBB Conference Tournament Bets - Saturday, March 14th

I once again lost a bet on a game involving Kentucky yesterday. Can’t get on the right side of that team, but more importantly, I think I may have been wrong about them being total ass. They started to get it together. Anyways, here is the theory I’m thinking about today...

I told you multiple times on the Board Review last week that I liked leaning into the team that already played a game against a team who was playing their first of the tournament. Rest vs Rust. One of my favorite betting angles, and the team who had already played a game did very well.

Now I think I want to keep an eye on the team who covered yesterday vs the team who didn’t cover today - and I want to lean into the team that didn't cover. It’s a little recency bias that will have most bettors siding with the underdogs, but I don’t think it applies too much to Vandy since the game was essentially a PK.

I don’t respect Tennessee all that much so I’m not valuing Vandy a ton after that win. It was gritty, I’ll give them that, and I can see them being a team that makes their biggest splash in the conference tournament while Florida has their main focus on the big dance. For that reason I side with Vandy and the points.

This is where I will lean into the angle I mentioned above. Betting on the team that didn’t cover against a team that did. I feel like taking all those points with Wisconsin looks like an easy button to press.

The Badgers just upset Illinois, but I watched that game and they got a VERY favorable whistle. Not taking all the credit away, because it was still a scrappy performance and they were impressive clawing back, but Illinois is once again fraudulent. Also Brad Underwood stinks.

I think Michigan bulldozes the Badgers here, especially after that wake up call yesterday against Ohio State. You can not sleep on the Buckeyes - they are playing some very good basketball.

Michigan 1H will be my play, and if it loses, I will double down on the full game.

You’d think I would go Razorbacks here with the angle I have been talking about, but I’m going to call an audible. Ole Miss is just simply playing well and I don’t think it’s smart to fade teams like that in any tournament type of setting. 

I was 2-0 betting on these teams yesterday. Went with OU 1H and Ole Miss +10.5 against Bama. The Rebels are 3-0 SU and ATS as underdogs in this tournament.

They are the hot hand, and I will ride that. Rebels with the points.

UCLA is playing some really solid ball. You might disagree, but I think the most uncomfortable button to press is laying the points with Purdue.

I’ve mentioned many times how soft this Purdue team is. UCLA is not a soft team. Donovan Dent is a dog, and they’re playing like dogs. This is not a good matchup for Purdue in my opinion, however…it’s the Boilermakers today.

Once again I remind you that Purdue is the team that disappointed in the regular season, and the tournament is their time to hit the reset button. They are playing pissed off, inspired basketball. Fletcher Loyer is a dweeb but if he’s hitting 3’s, this team is a problem. He was 4/9 yesterday and I don’t see him cooling off. 

I think this will be a very scrappy low scoring game. I like Purdue and the Under, but deep in my soul, it’s still fuck Purdue. For that reason, I will be on the under. But don’t forget, I no longer bet full game unders. 

It’s the 1H under for me.