Jeff Sunday Goes Full MLB Stat Nerd

I could be way off here, but I think this line is short. My model had Sandy opening up a little higher than -130 against the Nationals and Cade Cavalli. “You have a model?” stop asking stupid questions.

 

Back in April, Sandy was -140 at home against Abbot and the Reds. He was also just -145 against the O’s and Bassit. Seeing an opener of -130 agains a sub .500 team has me going “hmmm” in the early hours of this lovely morning. If you agree, then let’s break it down. If you don't, then stop here.

 

What are the oddsmakers telling us? Either the Nats bats are going to beat up Sandy, or Cavalli is going to shove. Bubba Sparxx said “let’s get dirty” but Bubba Dorxx said LET’S GET NERDY!

 

A nerdy site that won't be named because #nofreeads tells us that this Washington lineup has seen Sandy 68 times and have a .215 batting average against him. That’s not very good. Their WOBA (not sure what that means, but it's important) is .213, which is also not very good. So on the surface, nothing from the Nats bats vs Sandy stats side of things is getting me excited. Now let’s check out Miami vs Cavalli…

 

The Marlins have seen Cade 26 times - which isn’t a ton - and have a .360 batting average and a .346 WOBA.

 

Not a good start for Washington, as it would appear Miami has the pitching and hitting advantage here. But again, this is all on the surface. It’s a small sample size, and I’m not satisfied. Let’s keep digging and get extra nerdy. There must be SOME reason Sandy is only -130...

 

If you look at the metrics with an “x” in front of it, that means “expected”. MLB stat nerds love expected stats. Perhaps this can tell us a story beyond what we see on the surface.

 

The Marlins expected batting average against Cade is lower than the actual average:

BA - .360

XBA - .256

 

How about the WOBA?

WOBA - .346

XWOBA - .272

 

Okay, now it’s getting a little better for Washington…

 

Again, I don’t know what WOBA is, but compared to every other team and pitcher on the slate, .272 appears to be low. 

 

Now let’s look at the expected numbers for the Nationals against Sandy:

BA - .215

XBA - .245

 

WOBA - .213

XWOBA - .279

 

Not a whole lot of improvement for the Nats, but still some. Whereas the Marlins have hit above their expected numbers against Cade. 

 

Something else that stands out is Sandy only has a 5% K rate against Washington. Super low! And the Nationals have a higher SLG (.384) than the Marlins have against Cade (.335)

 

In conclusion, what we have here is a classic case of Actual Stats vs Expected Stats. Advantage Washington for just about everything in the expected category. Things have gone the Marlins way in the past, but perhaps the Nationals are due to get some better bounces.

 

Now the question is…what do I do with this information? Do I go with the F5 Over or the Nationals F5? Or do I take the full game? That would depend on who has the bullpen advantage, which would take more time and brainpower to research, but I’m fucking gassed after the digging I just did. This is why betting baseball is such a bitch.

 

I’m going to just take the Washington Nationals to win the game (+120)

 

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