Cubs vs Reds: The Best Bet to Make for Friday’s MLB Slate

Hunter Greene takes the ball for his second start of the season after missing most of the first half with elbow surgery. His debut was ugly (3.1 IP, 8 ER vs. Baltimore), but the underlying stuff looked sharp and his velocity was intact. More importantly, Greene has a strong history against this Cubs lineup, allowing just two runs over his previous three starts versus Chicago. In a hitter-friendly park, the high-upside right-hander should settle in quickly and keep the Cubs offense in check—especially since Chicago’s lineup has shown regression against right-handers this season.

Shota Imanaga (5-7, 4.28 ERA) has been hittable in 2026 and is coming off a stretch of softer matchups (Rockies twice, Mets, Padres, Cardinals). The lefty has surrendered 2.7 HR per nine innings over his last two months and ranks poorly in barrel rate allowed. The Reds, meanwhile, have mashed lefties since June 1—ranking among the league leaders in ISO and hard-hit rate against southpaws. Facing Imanaga at home in one of baseball’s most homer-friendly venues gives Cincinnati a clear offensive edge.

The Cubs’ bullpen is also a major liability. With multiple high-leverage arms on the injured list (including closer Daniel Palencia), Chicago lacks depth if Imanaga falters or the game stretches into the later innings. GABP’s park factors and warm, low-wind conditions should further inflate scoring in favor of the home side.

While the Cubs carry the better overall record, the specific pitching matchup, recent trends against lefties for the Reds, Greene’s historical success here, and the thin Chicago relief corps create a spot where the underdog Reds are the sharper side. At +102, Cincinnati is the value play in what projects as a high-scoring, tightly contested divisional game. Expect the Reds to take advantage of the home environment and come away with the win.