Commanders vs Ravens: The Best NFL Preseason Play for Friday Night Week 3

The Commanders-Ravens preseason finale carries a low 33.5 total for a reason. Starters are sitting, the clock is winding down toward Saturday’s 53-man cuts, and the players who will actually take the majority of snaps have already shown their best tape.

Athan Kaliakmanis and Joe Fagnano will handle most of the night. Kaliakmanis, Washington’s seventh-round rookie, has been sharp—11-of-14 for 162 yards against Detroit, a 104.3 passer rating through two games, and some impressive vertical shots. Fagnano has been even hotter for Baltimore: 37-of-48 for 347 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Both have looked like they belong. That is exactly why they are due for regression. Preseason Week 3 is when defenses start selling out to stop the exact things these backups have been doing well. The sample is tiny. One extra sack, one tipped ball, one conservative third-down check-down and the scoring dries up.

The other factor is familiarity. The two teams held a joint practice in Owings Mills on Wednesday. They have already seen each other’s second- and third-team personnel, the route concepts these QBs like, and the blitz packages that give them trouble. Offenses that looked efficient against vanilla looks two weeks ago now face coordinators who know the tells. That usually produces more three-and-outs, more field-position battles, and fewer explosive plays.

Add the typical Week 3 script—vanilla play-calling, limited tempo, and coaches more interested in evaluating technique than lighting up the scoreboard—and u33.5 starts to look sharper and sharper. Expect a sloppy, low-scoring game that stays under the total on Friday night.