College Basketball Best Bets - Saturday, February 14th

The 2026 Michigan Wolverines have been talked about as one of the best college basketball teams (statistically) of all time. They're 23-1, but recently failed to cover the spread in 7 straight games. What goes up, must come down. It's time for them to course correct. 

Michigan went to East Lansing and whooped Michigan State on Tom Izzos Birthday. I backed the Wolverines then, and I'm interested in backing them to finish the season.

After that ATS dry spell, I think Michigan starts beating teams up. They just survived a sleepy spot at Northwestern and now come back home to face a UCLA team that's playing some good basketball. The Bruins have won 5 of their last 6 games, with the only loss being in OT against Indiana.

I say Michigan gets up for this game and makes it nasty. Set the -15.5 and forget it.

After a slow start to the season, St Johns has found their groove. The Red Storm have ripped off 10 straight wins. Now they head to Providence this weekend looking for revenge.

These teams first met back in early January. Providence won outright 77-71 as a 14.5 point dog. That was before St Johns woke up. Since then,  Providence has been a total dissapointment, going 3-8 in their next 11 games.

I think the Red Storm dominate this game, but I have my eyes on the total. The first time these two teams met the oddsmakers set a 166.5 total and the game soared under. In the rematch, we find the total being set a few points higher. This is a system spot Steak and I bet into often, most recently with UF/Georgia.

The Red Storm get up early and stay up often, but Providence's offense shows up for the home crowd. Give me the OVER 169.5.

I can't pretend I watch or know too much ball, but I did see Louisville play a few times over the holidays. Not impressed. They had a great 1H at home vs Duke and then completely folded in the 2H. This was after they lost to Stanford as a 7.5 point favorite. Louisville played at Duke a few games later and got destroyed. But since then, they've looked strong. Winners of 4 straight, but only 2-2 ATS. 

You could say I'm buying high on the Cardinals after they just put up a season high 118 points against NC State, and that's fair. What I'm really doing is fading a Baylor team that I don't think is very good and in a terrible spot.

I did get eyes on BYU vs Baylor a few nights ago. Baylor got up to an early 33-21 lead, but then it all fell apart. Granted they fought hard and made it appear to be a close game on the scoreboard, it was total domination in the second half by BYU.

Before hosting BYU, Baylor played Iowa State on the road. They were 14.5 point dogs and only lost the game by 3. Simply put, it's a tough ask to expect this 13-11 Baylor team to get up for three straight games, especially when todays opponent is playing some of their best basketball.

Give me the Cardinals -6.5.

The Florida Gators are starting to get talked about as a team who can repeat. After a slow start, the Gators have won 9 of 10. You can find them around 14/1 to win it all and even 3/1 to make the FInal Four. They have peoples attention, so I'm concerned about buying high and taking the spread as they face Kentucky today. Instead, I've got my eye on a total.

I want to back the Gators defense. They've gone under in 6 straight and it's mostly becuase they due to their opponents not being able to score. I watched Kentucky beat Tennessee, but I really wasn't impressed. They took advantage of a Tennessee team that stalled offensively. I'm not sure if Kentucky is good or bad, but I don't think they will have much success in the swamp today.

Give me the Cats TT Under 69.5.