Astros vs Mets: Taking the Nastiest Under on Friday’s MLB Slate

The first-five under 4.5 (-144) in tonight’s Astros-Mets opener is one of the sharpest spots on the board. Two mid-tier offenses are facing two right-handers who should be able to work five innings without the scoreboard getting out of hand.

Hunter Brown is the buy-low. His season ERA sits at 3.51, but the last month has been sloppy: elevated walk rate (5.21 BB/9 on the year), extra pitches, and a handful of starts where he needed 90-plus pitches just to get through five. The stuff is still there. The command has drifted. That combination usually produces traffic but not a flood of runs in the first five frames, especially against a Mets lineup missing Juan Soto and Mark Vientos.

On the other side, Christian Scott remains underrated. The 3.73 ERA and 11.2 K/9 do not scream ace, yet he has consistently missed bats and limited damage when he stays in the zone. Coming off Tommy John and a midseason hip issue, the market still treats him like a mid-rotation placeholder. He is better than that, particularly at home against a Houston offense that has hit .221 over its last 10 games.

Both lineups are mid. Houston ranks 16th in batting average and has been quiet on the road lately. New York sits even lower in average and runs scored and is playing without two of its better bats. Neither club has the consistent extra-base punch that blows first-five totals open.

That is why 4.5 looks sharp. The full-game number is already sitting around 7.5-8. If both starters simply do what they have done most of the year—work five innings and keep the damage to two or fewer—the under cashes before the bullpens even enter the picture. Low-event baseball, two imperfect but capable arms, two offenses that have not been lighting anyone up. The F5 under is the right side.